Climate change impacts and implications for New Zealand to 2100 (Lowland case study)

The lowland section of the Kaituna catchment in Bay of Plenty is modelled to show the impacts of climate change through to 2100. The catchment has a wide variety of land uses and vegetation types.

The dataset - what is it?

The data provides a look at the mid-century and late-century of the 2000’s for dairy, sheep, cattle, forestry, cropping and kiwifruit. Different climate change simulators (General Circulation models) are used to produce a range of potential outcomes.

Why it's important

Different areas of land may require long-term plans of switching land use types during this century.

Climate change impacts different land uses differently, some are positive, others negative, and others are covered by the sea. The models show pasture benefiting from increases in both temperature and summer rain. Crop yield estimates are generally increasing – with some variation to negativity under different simulations.

 Kiwifruit is negatively impacted by rises in winter temperatures from May to July. The model predicts that Kiwifruit will not get the ‘coldness’ to set the quality and quantity of flowers they require.