Pasture production under climate change
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Future climate is likely to have a major impact on pasture production. Climate change has the potential to change land use and land management as viable climatic conditions change spatially.
The dataset - what is it?
The data provides changes in average annual pasture production over the early century (2006-2026), mid-century (2040-2060), and late-century (2080-2100), under different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP). RCPs are different amounts of greenhouse gas concentrations, in this report 2.6, 4.5, 5.5 and 6.0 are modelled. Two land management regimes are modelled, firstly no irrigation and no fertiliser and secondly applying irrigation and N fertiliser as required but limited to 200kgN/ha/year.
Why it's important to a landowner
The viability of land for pasture may change over the coming century.
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How to use this information safely
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These maps show how average yearly pasture growth could change over this century under different climate change scenarios, with and without irrigation and nitrogen fertiliser. They're based on simulations, so they don't take into account soil limits other than water and nitrogen, or pests and disease.
They're a good way to take a rough first look, but the pasture on your own whenua could be different. Before you make any big decisions for your whenua, you should consider getting advice from an expert.
Caveats
Soil limitations considered in the simulations were limited to water and nitrogen supply and also excluded pests and diseases.
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Please note:
You can use this information to help with information on pasture production under climate change.
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